The war between Ukraine and Russia is escalating quickly.
On Thursday, Russia claimed to have shot down two UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles. This, after Moscow deployed a ballistic missile against Kyiv.
The war between Moscow and Kyiv has really ramped this past week
But what happened? What changed? And what happened next?
Let’s take a closer look:
What happened?
Biden gives green light
It all began on Sunday with outgoing US president Joe Biden allowing Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia.
The missiles, known as Army Tactical Missile System (
ATACMS), were shipped from the United States to Ukraine in October 2023.
The move, a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, came months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
It followed months of pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskkyy to allow Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border.
Zelenskyy said in his evening address that the missiles would “speak for themselves.”
“Today, many in the media are saying that we have received permission to take appropriate actions,” he said. “But strikes are not made with words. Such things are not announced.”
Russia claims Ukraine fires long-range missiles
Then, on Tuesday,
the 1000th day of the Ukraine-Russia war, Russia claimed that Ukraine fired long-range missiles into its Bryansk region.
Moscow said Kyiv sent six US-made ATACMS long-range missiles into its western Bryansk region.
“Last night at 3.25 the enemy struck a facility in the Bryansk region with six ballistic missiles. According to confirmed data, American-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were used,” the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.
It said Russian air defences shot down five missiles and damaged one, whose fragments fell on a military facility.
The ministry said this caused a fire that was quickly extinguished, and there were no casualties or damage.
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces destroyed 12 Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region, where the attack took place, between 7:15 am and 8:35 am, and four more between 9:10 am and 9:20 am.
A subsequent report from Russia’s state news agency TASS said Russian air defence forces had shot down 85 drones and five ballistic missiles launched by Ukraine in the past 24 hours.
The Ukrainian military said its strike was followed by 12 secondary explosions and detonations in the area.
US officials later confirmed the use of the ATACMS to CBS News.
Ukraine itself did not comment on the use of the long-range missiles.
Ukrainian outlets Forbes Ukraine and RBC Ukraine cited unnamed sources as saying that ATACMS had been used for the first time to conduct the strike in Karachev.
Putin approves change to nuclear doctrine
Then, also on Tuesday, Putin made a major change in response to Ukraine’s use of the ATACMS.
The Russian president lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks.
The updated Russian nuclear doctrine, establishing a framework for conditions under which Putin could order a strike from the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal, was approved by him on Tuesday, according to a published decree.
The previous doctrine, contained in a 2020 decree, said Russia may use nuclear weapons in case of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatened the existence of the state.
Putin is the primary decision-maker on the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
Together, Russia and the US control 88 per cent of the world’s nuclear warheads.
Analysts said the biggest change was that Russia could consider a nuclear strike in response to a conventional attack on Russia or its ally Belarus that “created a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity”.
“The big picture is that Russia is lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a possible conventional attack,” said Alexander Graef, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.
Biden gives Ukraine anti-personnel mines
Biden then went a step further on Wednesday – approving anti-personnel land mines for Ukraine.
Officials said this could help slow Russian advances in its east, especially when used along with other munitions from the United States.
The United States expects Ukraine to use the mines in its own territory, though it has committed not to use them in areas populated with its own civilians, the official said.
The development was first reported by the Washington Post.
“They have a need for things that can help slow down that effort on the part of the of the Russians,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was quoted as saying by the newspaper.
Ukrainian forces are making their own mines, he added.
He said US mines being provided “would self-activate, self-detonate and that makes it…far more safer eventually than the things that they are creating on their own.”
“Russia is attacking Ukrainian lines in the east with waves of troops, regardless of the casualties that they’re suffering,” an officials said. “So the Ukrainians are obviously taking losses, and more towns and cities are at risk of falling. These mines were made specifically to combat exactly this.”
“When they’re used in concert with the other munitions that we already are providing Ukraine, the intent is that they will contribute to a more effective defense,” the official added.
The Pentagon also announced it would send Ukraine at least $275 million in new weapons.
“We will continue to provide Ukraine the support it needs to succeed on the battlefield and prevail in its defense against Russia’s aggression,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.
The weapons will be provided through presidential drawdown authority, which allows the Pentagon quickly to pull supplies from its shelves to speed them to Ukraine’s front line.
Trump’s upcoming move to the White House has triggered a scramble by the Biden administration to ensure all the congressionally approved funding for Ukraine gets delivered and that Kyiv is in a strong position going into the winter.
Ukraine uses Storm Shadow missiles
Ukraine on Wednesday fired a volley of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia.
Storm Shadow missiles are made by European missile systems company, MBDA, which brings together core missile assets from France, Britain and Italy.
According to MBDA, “Storm Shadow/SCALP is the air-launched long range, conventionally armed, deep strike weapon, designed to meet the demanding requirements of pre-planned attacks against high value fixed or stationary targets.”
BBC reported that Defence Secretary John Healey had spoken to his Ukrainian counterpart on Tuesday night.
Healey, addressing the House of Commons, earlier said, “Ukraine’s action on the battlefield speaks for itself.”
Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said it is “using all the means to defend our country”.
The strikes were widely reported by Russian
war correspondents on Telegram and confirmed by an official on condition of anonymity.
A spokesperson for Ukraine’s General Staff said he had no information.
Accounts of Russian
war correspondents on Telegram video they said included the sound of the missiles striking Kursk region, which borders northeastern Ukraine.
BBC quoted weapons experts, it showed images of the strike to, as confirming the development.
Amael Kotlarski, Weapons Team manager at Janes, said: “We can confirm that the large, rectangular piece of debris, featuring a hole in the centre, does indeed match part of the mounting interface of the Storm Shadow / SCALP EG missile.”
Wednesday also saw a number of embassies in Kyiv shutter for the day including those of the US, Spain, Italy and Greece.
This came after warnings of a “potentially significant attack.”
Russian foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said in an interview published on Wednesday that Moscow would retaliate against NATO countries that facilitate long-range Ukrainian missile strikes against Russian territory.
Russia launches ballistic missile
Then, on Thursday, Russia launched a ballistic missile against Ukraine.
Russia fired a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday.
Putin, in a televised address, said Moscow struck a Ukrainian military facility with a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as “Oreshnik” (the hazel) and warned that more could follow.
He said civilians would be warned ahead of further strikes with such weapons.
A US official said Russia notified Washington shortly before its strike, while another official said the U.S. had briefed Kyiv and allies to prepare for the possible use of such a weapon.
Kyiv initially suggested Russia fired an
intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon designed for long-distance nuclear strikes and never before used in war.
But US officials and NATO echoed Putin’s description of the weapon as an intermediate-range ballistic missile, which has a shorter range of 3,000–5,500 km.
Russia also fired a Kinzhal hypersonic missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles, six of which were shot down, the Ukrainian air force said.
The attack targeted enterprises and critical infrastructure in Dnipro, the air force said. Dnipro was a missile-making center in the Soviet era. Ukraine has expanded its military industry during the war but keeps its whereabouts secret.
Regional Governor Serhiy Lysak said the attack damaged an industrial enterprise and set off fires in Dnipro. Two people were hurt.
Russia’s defence ministry, in its daily report of events over the previous 24 hours on Thursday, said air defences had shot down two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles but did not say where.
Britain had previously let Ukraine use Storm Shadows only within Ukrainian territory.
Experts say Putin is attempting to rattle the West.
Ex-US Ambassador to Nato, Ivo Daalder, told BBC, “It’s something he’s been doing for quite a while. He’s constantly trying to find new ways to scare the West into not taking the actions they need to take in order to defend Ukraine, hoping to deter in some ways Western countries from continuing to support Ukraine.”
“These threats should be taken seriously,” Daalder added. “At the same time we shouldn’t be cowed by those threats or changes in doctrine… We should remember that Vladimir Putin is doing that from weakness, not because of strength.”
It remains to be seen how much further the conflict can escalate – and how quickly.
With inputs from agencies