A few thousand Arab or Jewish votes, especially in some swing states, can put Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House
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As the US presidential election heats up, foreign policy is taking on an outsized role, especially in the final stretch of the race. Vice President Kamala Harris, who had largely stayed away from geopolitics throughout the campaign, has shifted focus in recent days, making a public push for a ceasefire in Gaza. But what’s behind this sudden pivot?
The answer lies in a critical demographic: Arab-American voters. For years, this group has largely supported Democratic candidates, but recent polling reveals a significant shift. Many Arab-Americans are dissatisfied with the Biden administration’s unwavering support for Israel in its ongoing conflict with Gaza. As a result, a sizeable portion of Arab-American voters—estimated at 42 per cent—are now backing Donald Trump, while only 41 per cent remain loyal to Harris, according to recent polls. This marks a sharp contrast from the 2020 election, where Biden won a substantial share of the Arab vote.
At the heart of this discontent is the perception that President Biden has enabled Israeli actions in Gaza, which many Arab-Americans see as unjust. This sentiment was clearly expressed by several Muslim-American voices at the Islamic Center in Washington, DC, a historically significant mosque inaugurated by President Eisenhower in 1952. Omar Al Mukhtar, a Libyan-American, voiced frustration with the Democratic Party’s inability to enact meaningful change on Middle East policy, saying, “Americans have been in a gridlock for decades, and they keep thinking that the Democrats are going to save them. We were pushed to vote for Biden in 2020 and look what he did. Look what Biden has done. He’s the one perpetrating the genocide.”
Ruqyah Sweidan, a Palestinian-American, added, “I found that President Trump has been slightly more effective in reaching Muslim and Arab leaders. He’s been a bit more doubtful about pursuing war.” Though not necessarily a Trump supporter, many Arab-Americans appear to view him as a lesser evil—someone less likely to escalate conflicts in the region.
In battleground states like Michigan, where Arab-Americans make up a significant portion of the electorate, Trump is sensing an opportunity. He is once again visiting key cities like Dearborn, known as the “Arab capital of America”, to make his case. There, Trump reiterated his promise to “bring peace to the Middle East”, an appeal that resonates with many voters disillusioned with the current administration’s foreign policy.
However, this shift in the Arab-American vote is not just about support for Trump. It’s as much about punishing the Democrats for what many perceive as their failure to act on the Middle East conflict.
On the other side of the spectrum, Jewish-American voters—a key Democratic stronghold—are also facing a tough decision. Despite Trump’s overtures to Israel, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his home in Florida, Jewish-American voters remain largely aligned with the Democrats. This is due in part to concerns over Trump’s associations with far-right groups and the rise in anti-Semitic rhetoric from some of his supporters.
A stark reminder of these concerns came after the Hamas attack in 2023, which saw a sharp spike in anti-Semitic incidents across the country. For Jewish-Americans, especially those in swing states like Pennsylvania, where 300,000 Jewish voters could tilt the election, the battle for their support is as much about protecting their safety as it is about supporting Israel.
In Pennsylvania, which Biden narrowly won in 2020 by just 82,000 votes, Jewish-Americans played a pivotal role in putting him over the line. The 2024 race could see the same dynamic, with both communities—Arab and Jewish—shaping the final outcome. Despite Trump’s outreach to Arab voters, polling indicates that Jewish-American support remains firmly behind Harris, with over 71 per cent backing the Democratic ticket.
So, foreign policy is set to remain a defining issue in this election, with both parties scrambling to address the Middle East conflict and its impact on American voters. For Harris, the shift in focus to the Gaza ceasefire may be an attempt to win back Arab-American support, but the damage done by Biden’s policies could linger. Meanwhile, Trump will continue to capitalise on these divisions, hoping to peel away enough votes to secure another surprise victory.
In the end, foreign policy—often a secondary issue in US elections—has become a deciding factor for millions of American voters. Whether Arab-American voters’ discontent and Jewish-American voters’ loyalty can tip the scales in key states will determine whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump emerges victorious.
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