The US elections are finally over and Donald Trump has emerged as the winner, set to take over as the president for the second time on January 20, 2025. While the US elections were closely monitored all over the globe, the two regions where it was perhaps most closely followed, have to be West Asia and Europe-Russia, for obvious reasons, due to the ongoing wars.
The Russia-Ukraine war would be at the threshold of completing three years while the war in Gaza would have completed 16 months of death, devastation and misery by the time Trump takes over office. With the Biden administration having failed miserably to halt either of the wars, there is hope that Trump would weave some magic and bring peace to both the regions. The hope stems also from the fact that Trump is averse to wars; even in his victory speech, he stated that he was here not to start any war but to end the wars.
Despite the fact that the Russia-Ukraine war has been on for over two years, it has not witnessed the scale of devastation and death that has been witnessed in Gaza in just over a year. With over 43,000 civilians killed, about two million displaced (as per official figures), and the infrastructure in Gaza totally obliterated, the situation is grim and needs urgent solutions. It is here that there is hope from Trump’s second presidency, especially if one has to go by how Trump 1.0 ensured that there were no major conflicts in the region, besides the various plans that he offered to the region (always heavily loaded in favour of Israel) to settle decades-old issues between Palestine and Israel.
Trump 1.0 and Israel-Palestine Issue
After taking over office in January 2017, the Trump administration put the Israel-Palestine issue on priority. It was, therefore, not a surprise that the White House hosted the Palestine Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas as early as in May 2017. During the meeting, the US president “stressed that he is personally committed to helping Israelis and Palestinians achieve a comprehensive peace, and that any peace settlement can only be the product of direct negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians”. He was however also critical of the Palestinians when he told Mahmoud Abbas to stop incitement and crack down on terrorism.
President Trump, however, took the world totally by surprise when, on December 6, 2017, in a press conference, he announced his twin decisions to formally recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to move the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv. Calling his decision a “new approach to the conflict”, he added that it was long overdue and a “necessary step” to enhance the peace process. Obviously, it invited immediate and severe criticism from West Asia, especially Palestine.
It was soon followed by reports of the Trump Peace Plan, reported first in February 2018 following a meeting of Arab and European Foreign Ministers in Brussels. It indicated that the US as well as the international community would grant recognition of a Palestinian state and acceptance of East Jerusalem as its capital. The plan also called for placing the Old City of Jerusalem under “international protection while Israel would continue to have its capital in Jerusalem.
The Trump administration called the proposed plan the “deal of the century”, while the Palestinian Authority denounced it as a conspiracy aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause. The plan was, however, withheld until it was finally presented by President Trump on January 20, 2020. He unveiled the 181-page plan, standing side by side with Israeli Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announcing that his “vision presents a win-win opportunity for both sides, a realistic two-state solution that resolves the risk of Palestinian statehood to Israel’s security”.
The plan even included a conceptual map of a two-state solution too. Key proposals included US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over territory that the plan envisages being part of Israel. Trump boasted that the plan would “more than double the Palestinian territory and provide a Palestinian capital in eastern Jerusalem”. He added that no Palestinians or Israelis will be uprooted from their homes, suggesting that existing Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West-Bank will remain. The plan was promptly dismissed by the Palestinians, calling it a conspiracy and a one-sided deal.
The Abraham Accords has to be the next and most significant step in Trump 1.0 and its policy announcements for the region. Signed after hectic parleys over months, the accords had twin aims: First, to bring about broad-based acceptance and reconciliation of Israel with the Arab world; second, it singled out, without even specifying, Iran as the enemy No.1. In the subtext of the Accords was also implanted the Palestinian issue subtly where it was stated that countries in the Accord will continue their efforts to achieve a just, comprehensive, realistic and enduring solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, giving no assurances or timelines.
Another important factor which has an important bearing on how the Gaza war may pan out or end in Trump 2.0 is that there was no major conflict between Hamas and Israel during his first term. Whereas ‘Operation Protective Edge’ was undertaken by Israel into Gaza in July 2014, the major conflict only came about in May 2021 in the form of an Israeli military operation, ‘Operation Guardian of Walls’ months after Trump had left office.
The Iran Factor
In the issues with regards to Israel’s security in the region and Trump’s policies, the Iran factor cannot be ignored. Having identified Iran as the enemy No.1 in the region, President Trump did everything possible to put Tehran under unprecedented pressure and sanctions.
Acting on his election promise, on May 8, 2018, Trump pulled the plug on the nuclear deal terming it a “horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made”. Following up, US Secretary of State Mike Pompoe announced a list of 12 demands, fulfilment of which would be a must for any future deal with Iran. Some of these issues were not even part of the nuclear deal like putting severe restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missiles programme, demand to stop enrichment of plutonium reprocessing, end support to West Asian “terrorist” outfits, including groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Houthis.
The Trump administration adopted a “maximum pressure” policy on Iran by imposing severe economic sanctions, prohibiting countries (including India) from buying crude oil from Iran and freezing its offshore assets and bank accounts. It also designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran as a Foreign Terrorist Organization on April 8, 2019.
The Persian Gulf crisis of 2019 was the next major episode between the US and Iran. It was initially triggered by a spurt in attacks by Iran-backed Houthis from Yemen, launching missile and drone attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, on Saudi airports and oil pipelines. The downing of a US drone by Iran flying over its airspace on June 20, 2019, was, however, a definite provocation evoked an immediate and strong response from the US. Reports suggested that President Trump had ordered retaliatory military strikes against Iran on June 21, before changing his mind at the last moment, possibly in an attempt to avoid a full-blown military conflict.
The US had its revenge when General Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, was assassinated in Baghdad through a drone strike by the US. The stand-off between the two countries continued till the end of the Trump term in January 2021.
What are the options to end the war in Gaza?
In the ongoing war in Gaza, Trump has, more than once, supported Israel’s right to defence. He has been in close touch with PM Netanyahu all along and in an interview to an Israeli media house in April this year, he said that Israel needed to “finish what they started” and “get it over fast”, adding that Israel was “losing the PR war” because of the visuals coming out of Gaza.
Even before the elections, media reports indicated that Trump had told PM Netanyahu to clear up the mess and end the war before his presidency commences. Immediately after his victory in recent elections too, he has clearly hinted at pushing for an early end to the war. A spokesperson for the Republican Party, Elizabeth Pipko, in a press interaction on November 7 said that the President-elect Donald Trump wants to see Israel wrap up its wars soon, with decisive victories.
What are, therefore, the options to end the war in Gaza?
The Trump presidency does not start till January 20, 2025. Intense bombardment being carried out by Israel in Gaza and Southern Lebanon since November 7 indicates that Israel has got itself time for another two months to achieve its war objectives. The sacking of Defence Minister Gallant by Netanyahu on November 4 and the announcement by the Israel Defence Forces on November 6 that Israeli ground forces are getting closer to “the complete evacuation” of northern Gaza and that residents would not be allowed to return home in northern Gaza, indicates that Israel wants to go full throttle for the next two months.
It is, therefore, very likely that Trump and Netanyahu have decided to give Israel another window to “finish the job” and thereafter agree to end the war or even announce a unilateral ceasefire, something that Israel has done in the past conflicts in Gaza too. They might also accept the broad terms of the ‘ceasefire plan’ proposed in May 2024, which was duly endorsed by the UN Security Council, as a way to end the war and which has been accepted by Hamas too. This would be the perfect kick-start to his presidency in Trump 2.0, making him the peacemaker that he claims and successfully ‘ending the war’.
Coupled with the above reasoning, it is also unlikely that Israel would yield now, more because for political reasons than anything else. Israel would achieve little, especially for the future, by giving the Biden presidency the credit for ending the war. The only big question is whether Netanyahu will even agree for a ceasefire in January. The Trump administration would bank upon his past deliveries for Israel in Trump 1.0 to persuade Israel to end the war. A promise of a possible Abraham Accords 2.0, taking in more countries like Saudi Arabia to align with Israel, could also add to the effect. Also, Trump is known for a clear transactional relationship even with close allies like Israel and with elections now over, it will be difficult for Netanyahu to say ‘no’ to him, especially if the US threatens to put a stop on critical military aid.
Conclusion
From the experience of Trump 1.0, it is clear that his policies in the region will continue to favour Israel and that he will use this perceived closeness with Israel to end the war soon after taking over. Meanwhile, Israel will use this window of two months to “finish the job” till Trump takes over as the President on January 20.
Col Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been Director in Military Intelligence as well as Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. His X handle is @rajeevidsa. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.