The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti seems to have bounced back from its poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. The early trends indicate a comfortable lead for the ruling party in the state assembly polls.
As per the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) official website, the Mahayuti is leading across the state. The BJP has won 2 seats and is leading in 124 others, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena has won one and is leading in 54 others, and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is ahead in 40.
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Meanwhile, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is trailing behind the Mahayuti. According to ECI data, the Congress is ahead in 20 seats, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) is leading 17 seats, while the Nationalist Congress Party’s Sharad Pawar faction is ahead in 12.
In Vidarbha, an agrarian belt in the eastern part of Maharashtra, the BJP is leading in most constituencies. This region, comprising 11 districts and 62 Assembly seats, is known for cotton farming but is often regarded as less developed compared to the western and coastal areas of the state.
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Why was Vidarbha so crucial?
Being home to a large population of both large- and small-scale farmers, this region has the second-highest number of Assembly seats after Western Maharashtra. This makes the region important for government formation.
The road to the Maharashtra throne passes through Vidarbha.
Notably, the region is home to key BJP leaders like Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, and Congress state chief Nana Patole. Fadnavis is contesting from Nagpur South-West, while Patole is running in Sakoli. The BJP is contesting the highest number of seats (47) in Vidarbha.
Vidarbha, with one-fifth of the state’s population, also has a strong presence of Dalit, Maratha, Kunbi, and Muslim communities. During the election campaign, the opposition MVA targeted the ruling party on issues such as reservations, soyabean prices, and Minimum Support Price (MSP) for crops.
The opposition also pointed out the number of farmer suicides in the region, which reached 1,439 cases in 2023, the highest in the state.
The importance of Vidarbha in the election strategies of both national parties is also evident from the frequent visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi.
Once a Congress stronghold
Vidarbha was historically a Congress stronghold until the BJP made inroads in the 1990s. Like earlier times, several political heavyweights from both alliances are contesting from this region in the current assembly elections. Key figures include Devendra Fadnavis, state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule, and state Congress president Nana Patole.
Congress leader and former cabinet minister Anees Ahmed told The Times of India, “Vidarbha holds the key to power and this has been the case since Indira Gandhi’s time. We as a party have fielded so many MLAs in this region and are confident of winning maximum seats here, which will ultimately ensure MVA’s return to power.”
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The BJP, recognising Vidarbha’s importance in the electoral numbers game, has also prioritised the region. Deaven Dasture, joint treasurer of the BJP’s city unit, told the newspaper, “This region is the only one where national parties dominate, hence the battle for us is with Congress. So, winning maximum seats in Vidarbha is crucial for everyone and we are working hard on it.”
He added that beyond numbers, Vidarbha is important as many decision-makers belong from this region. The BJP’s prominent candidates include Fadnavis, Bawankule, and several cabinet ministers. For Congress, top leaders such as Nana Patole, Leader of the Opposition Vijay Wadettiwar, and Yashomati Thakur are contesting from Vidarbha.
What changed for Mahayuti this time in Vidarbha?
Despite ongoing agricultural distress, including lower-than-MSP rates for cotton and soyabean, the Mahayuti alliance is racing ahead in the region.
Speaking to The Indian Express, farm activist Vijay Jawandhiya said, that the results show the success of the Majhi Mukhya Mantri Ladki Behin Yogna which saw the state government directly depositing ₹1,500 into the bank accounts of eligible women.
“Money after all is money – people saw the swiftness with which the money was deposited in the bank accounts. This was one of the main reasons why people decided to vote for Mahayuti just months after voting for MVA in the Loksabha elections,” he told IE.
Further, Mahayuti benefitted from its ability to manage internal differences and effectively handle rebellions within the alliance. Meanwhile, the MVA struggled with internal divisions in Vidarbha and faced challenges from strong independent candidates who weakened the prospects of official candidates, the report said.
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Senior Pawar’s strategy of bringing disgruntled leaders into the fold ahead of the Assembly polls does not appear to have paid off, nor has his approach of “targeting” those who switched to Ajit Pawar’s faction during the 2023 rebellion been effective, IE said in the report.
What happened in the 2014 and 2019 assembly polls in Vidarbha?
In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP secured a huge victory in Vidarbha, winning 44 of the 62 seats. The Congress managed to win just 10 seats. Under Nagpur South-West MLA Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister, the BJP-led alliance delivered a stable government throughout its tenure. The 2014 elections were also notable as all four major parties contested independently, testing their strengths.
In 2019, however, the BJP’s tally in Vidarbha dropped to 29 seats, a loss of 15 seats compared to 2014. This decline weakened its bargaining power in the pre-poll alliance with the Shiv Sena. The reduced numbers contributed to a loss of leverage, eventually leading to the collapse of the alliance over disputes regarding the Chief Minister’s position.
What happened in Lok Sabha Elections 2024?
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance faced a major setback in Vidarbha, securing just three out of the 10 seats. Across the state, the Mahayuti alliance managed to win only 17 of Maharashtra’s 48 seats. The BJP itself won just nine of the 28 seats it contested, a sharp decline from the 23 out of 25 seats it had won in the 2019 general elections.
Recognising Vidarbha’s importance, the BJP has fielded candidates in 47 of the 150 Assembly seats in the region, while the Congress has allocated about 40% of its 102 Maharashtra candidates to Vidarbha.
Mumbai-based political analyst Amitabh Tiwari told Mint, “The road to Maharashtra throne goes through Vidarbha. The battle here decides which way the wind is blowing.”
From a historical perspective, Vidarbha has been a major factor in determining who forms the government in Maharashtra. This is why leaders from both camps, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, focused heavily on campaigning in the region.