In Maharashtra, the election gods have smiled down on the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. Trends show the Mahayuti alliance has achieved a majority mark by securing 214 seats, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which is made up of the Congress, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, is trailing with just 67 seats.
To win the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, the magical number to secure is 145.
The stunning performance of the Mahayuti alliance has prompted the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena to cry foul of the results. Sanjay Raut of the Sena (UBT) said, “We are not willing to accept that this is a mandate given by the people of the state. Something is wrong with these results. This cannot be the mandate of people. There has been use of money power in the polls. How can all of Eknath Shinde’s MLAs win? If MVA cannot win 75 seats, that means Modi and Shah have rigged the results. This is a mandate managed by Adani and the gang.”
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While the Shiv Sena cries foul, we examine what factors swung the results in favour of the Mahayuti coalition.
Unprecedented poll reversal
On June 4, the
Mahayuti alliance faced a rude shock amid the Lok Sabha elections when they managed to win only 17 out of 48 seats in the state. The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), on the other hand, secured 30 seats, and one independent candidate later pledged support to the Congress, bringing their total to 31.
Realising it couldn’t be business as usual in
Maharashtra, the Mahayuti flipped the script, and the results can be seen today — just five months later — with the BJP-led alliance now on its way to securing a thumping victory in the state.
As of now, the Mahayuti is ahead, securing 224 seats — the BJP alone is leading in 127 seats, while the Shiv Sena is ahead in 49 seats and the
Ajit Pawar-led NCP is leading in 35 seats.
Based on the early trends, the BJP has achieved an impressive success rate of 85 per cent. The Shiv Sena follows with a solid 73 per cent success rate and the the NCP boasts a strong 80 per cent strike rate.
Woman power: Ladki Bahin Yojana
One of the main factors that have contributed to the Mahayuti’s win is the massive support they have received from women.
It seems the Ladki Bahin Yojana, announced just days after the Lok Sabha elections, has favoured the Mahayuti. Through this, Rs 1,500 per month is being given to 1.85 crore women across the state. Maharashtra has 4.6 crore women voters and this scheme covers almost 40 per cent of them. Moreover, during the campaigning, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde vowed to increase this amount to Rs 2,100 if they won the polls.
And it appears that this scheme has resonated with the voters, with women, who became a huge voter bloc in this Assembly election, putting their faith in the BJP-led alliance.
Farm activist Vijay Jawandhiya said, “Money after all is money — people saw the swiftness with which the money was deposited in the bank accounts. This was one of the main reasons why people decided to vote for Mahayuti just months after voting for MVA in the Loksabha elections,” he said.
Farmers’ support goes to Mahayuti
Farmers and agrarian distress have always been a big factor in the Maharashtra Assembly polls. Realising this, the Mahayuti has worked on this bloc to gain their support.
First off, the alliance promised to procure cotton crops above the Minimum Support Price (MSP) this season and to procure soybean under the Price Support Scheme with moisture content tolerance of up to 15 per cent.
Additionally, the alliance departed from the convention to promise a full loan waiver for farmers. This is responsible for the complete flip in the Vidarbha region, which the Mahayuti has won in a big way this time. As per trends, the Mahayuti alliance secured 47.6 per cent of the vote share in the 2024 Assembly elections, a 5.9 percentage point increase compared to its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. There’s also the fact that unlike the MVA, which had a divided house in this area, the Mahayuti handled the rebellions and ironed out differences quickly.
Consolidation of the OBC vote bank
Realising that the Marathas were still unhappy with them, the Mahayuti adopted a policy that saw them consolidate their OBC vote. As per an India Today report, the BJP has cultivated the OBC voter base since the 90s with its MADHAV formula, which brought together the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities. The strategy aimed to consolidate OBC support and counter the dominance of the Maratha community.
Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan ‘Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain’ which he first raised in Nashik and Dhule in the state also helped consolidate this bloc.
Focus on Maharashtra
During the Lok Sabha elections, a big complaint against the BJP was that it had compromised Maharashtra’s interests and favouring Gujarat. For instance, the
Foxconn-Vedanta’s semiconductor plant was shifted out of Maharashtra. Also, other industries were moving plants from Pune to Gujarat.
To counter this belief, the state government, invited Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to Mumbai and signed an MoU to make the Mumbai Metropolitan Region’s economy worth $300 billion. Schwab also promised to help Mumbai grow as a financial centre at international levels.
Also, the Centre in early October accorded
classical status to the Marathi language. This has been a long-pending appeal from Marathi voters, which the BJP has now fulfilled. This helped the Mahayuti to combat Uddhav Thackeray.
Lack of narrative from the MVA
Even though the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and the Congress were fighting this election together, there was no cohesive messaging from the bloc. It was unable to highlight any governance errors on the part of the Mahayuti.
In fact, the MVA focused on statements such as “traitors should be taught a lesson” — a statement that Uddhav Thackeray made repeatedly amid election campaigning.
With inputs from agencies