Why BJP Is on the Brink of Losing Haryana Elections?

Opinion Haryana Elections: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which took control of Haryana in 2014, is now staring at a potential defeat in the 2024 Assembly elections. Exit polls suggest Congress is set to make significant gains, capitalizing on both BJP’s governance failures and shifting regional dynamics.

BJP’s victory in 2014, under Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, saw them win 47 of 90 seats, largely driven by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. By 2019, the party’s hold had weakened, winning just 40 seats and forming a coalition with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which secured 10 seats. While the BJP pushed governance reforms, digitization, and infrastructure development, dissatisfaction began growing over unemployment, caste tensions, and controversial farm policies.

Key Issues Driving BJP’s Decline

BJP’s governance in Haryana has been marred by several significant challenges. Chief among them is unemployment, which remains one of the highest in India. Despite claims of job creation, public frustration has mounted, particularly among younger voters and urban populations.

Agriculture, a pillar of Haryana’s economy, became a flashpoint for discontent following the farmers’ protests against three farm laws, which were ultimately repealed. These protests, particularly among the state’s Jat farmers, left a lasting negative impression of BJP’s rural policies.

Unemployment and Rural Discontent

Unemployment has become a central issue in Haryana, where BJP’s promises have fallen short. Additionally, the farmers’ protests had a profound impact on the state’s agrarian communities, weakening BJP’s traditional support base. The party’s urban policies, like Parivar Pehchan Patra and Meri Fasal Mera Byora, also faced backlash due to poor implementation, further eroding voter confidence.

Caste Politics and JJP Alliance Struggles

The alliance between BJP and JJP, crucial for forming the 2019 government, has faced strain. JJP, with a strong Jat voter base, has seen its partnership with BJP diminish its influence among Jat voters—historically opposed to BJP. Caste dynamics, particularly between Jat and non-Jat communities, have intensified under BJP’s rule, leading to further political fragmentation.

Congress Gains Ground

Bhupinder Singh Hooda-led Congress has taken full advantage of BJP’s vulnerabilities, focusing its campaign on unemployment, farmer issues, and governance failures. Hooda’s leadership has given Congress a cohesive front, while internal discontent in BJP, including the decision to replace Khattar as Chief Minister, has compounded BJP’s problems.

Exit Polls and Future Scenarios

Exit polls predict Congress winning 50 to 58 seats, with BJP trailing at 20 to 28 seats—a sharp reversal of fortune for BJP. The once-dominant party now risks being sidelined as Congress, potentially in alliance with regional players, forms the next government. If no single party secures a majority, JJP could once again play kingmaker, but BJP’s role in Haryana’s government is likely to be significantly reduced.

Prime Minister Modi’s Campaign Efforts

National-level BJP campaigns have traditionally leveraged Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s achievements and the party’s larger vision for India. However, in Haryana, the focus has clearly shifted to pressing local concerns. The fact that Modi held far fewer rallies this election cycle suggests that BJP may be distancing its national leadership from potential blame for an anticipated poor performance.

This could indicate either a calculated decision to insulate the party’s top brass from local backlash, or it may signal that the party has already conceded defeat, recognizing the insurmountable challenges posed by strong anti-incumbency sentiments and the unresolved fallout from the farmers’ protests. By downplaying Modi’s involvement, the BJP risks further alienating voters who may have been swayed by his presence, especially as local issues such as unemployment, farmer distress, and caste tensions dominate the discourse in Haryana.

Anti-incumbency, failed governance, caste politics, and the aftermath of the farmers’ protests have led to BJP’s declining fortunes in Haryana. Congress, leveraging these issues, has positioned itself to make significant electoral gains. As the state heads towards a potential political realignment, BJP’s dominance appears to be fading, signaling a pivotal moment in Haryana’s political landscape.